Jefferies Flags Tesla 'Proxy' Risk as $TSLA and $SPCX Diverge

NEW YORK — Wall Street is starting to treat Tesla and SpaceX as two sides of the same Elon Musk trade, and on Monday Jefferies put a name to the risk. The firm raised its price target on Tesla — NASDAQ: TSLA — to 375 dollars from 350 while keeping a hold rating, and warned that growing expectations of a Tesla and SpaceX combination could push $TSLA to trade increasingly like a proxy for SpaceX, now public on the Nasdaq as $SPCX.

A tale of two tickers

The two stocks moved in opposite directions to start the week. $TSLA firmed back above the 400 dollar mark, supported by improving profitability, steadier demand, and enthusiasm around autonomy and AI. $SPCX, by contrast, pulled back sharply after SpaceX launched its first-ever public bond offering of senior unsecured notes worth at least 20 billion dollars, a move that refinances higher-cost bridge debt for a company sitting on roughly 100 billion dollars in cash. We broke down that decline in our report on SPCX pulling back as SpaceX taps the bond market.

Jefferies framed the divergence as structural. If investors conclude a merger is "next and soon," the firm wrote, Tesla shares could increasingly track SpaceX as holders try to minimize stake dilution. Wedbush analyst Dan Ives has placed the odds of a combination at 80 to 90 percent by early 2027. The full thesis, including the proxy-stock warning, was reported by Yahoo Finance.

Where the tape stands

As of midday June 23, $TSLA traded near 405 dollars, up about 1 percent on the session and holding comfortably above the closely watched 400 dollar level, within a 52-week range that has stretched from the low 200s to the mid 400s. $SPCX, which debuted at 135 dollars in its record June 12 IPO and briefly traded above 185 dollars, changed hands in the mid 160s after the bond-driven pullback, still valuing SpaceX well above 1.7 trillion dollars. Readers can track live quotes for Tesla on Yahoo Finance, Google Finance, WSJ, and Nasdaq, and for SpaceX on Yahoo Finance, Google Finance, WSJ, and Nasdaq.

The bull case stays intact

For all the caution in the Jefferies note, the bigger picture remains constructive. Tesla carries tens of billions in cash and no debt, a position that has fueled an ongoing debate over whether its credit rating is too low. SpaceX, meanwhile, is rapidly converting its launch dominance, Starlink growth, and booming AI compute business into recurring revenue. A potential merger that some on the Street fear for dilution, others see as the creation of an unrivaled technology conglomerate spanning EVs, rockets, satellites, and artificial intelligence.

Whether the two companies ultimately combine or not, the message from Monday is clear: $TSLA and $SPCX are now bound together in investors' minds, and the next chapter of the Musk trade may be written by both at once.

This article does not constitute financial advice. Readers are advised to do their own research before investing in the stock market. Prices cited are point-in-time snapshots and may be stale — always confirm on a live financial source.