AUSTIN, Texas — Tesla has published the analyst delivery consensus for the second quarter of 2026, and Wall Street now expects the company to hand over 406,024 vehicles for the period — a figure that would mark a return to year-over-year growth for the world's most valuable automaker.
A Return to Growth
The consensus, compiled from 22 sell-side firms including Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Wedbush, Barclays, and UBS, points to 406,024 total deliveries, with a median estimate of 408,609. That would represent roughly 5.7% growth over the 384,122 vehicles Tesla delivered in the second quarter of 2025, and a strong sequential step up from the 358,023 cars delivered in the first quarter. Analysts expect 392,625 of those deliveries to come from the Model 3 and Model Y, with the balance from the Model S, Model X, and Cybertruck. The figures land just as several firms signal that Tesla's momentum in Europe and resilience in China are setting up a quarter that could beat expectations outright.
Energy Storage Keeps Climbing
The same consensus calls for 13.8 GWh of energy storage deployments in Q2, a sharp jump from the 8.8 GWh Tesla deployed in Q1 and a sign that the company's fastest-growing division is still accelerating. For the full year, analysts model 57.9 GWh of storage, rising toward 150 GWh by 2030 — a trajectory that underscores how far Tesla has evolved beyond its roots as a pure carmaker. The energy business has been on a tear, recently hitting a record deployment pace as Megapack demand soared.
