Goldman Sachs Lifts Tesla Q2 Delivery Forecast to 420,000

AUSTIN, Texas — Wall Street is turning bullish on Tesla just days before the automaker reveals how many vehicles it delivered in the second quarter. Goldman Sachs this week raised its Q2 2026 delivery estimate to 420,000 vehicles, moving well above the broader consensus and setting a higher bar heading into one of the most closely watched reports of the year.

The upgrade, from a prior 405,000, lands roughly 5% ahead of the company-compiled consensus of about 406,000 deliveries that Tesla published from 22 sell-side analysts. Tesla is expected to release its actual delivery figures around July 2, with full second-quarter earnings due after the close on July 22.

A Higher Bar, and Confidence Behind It

Goldman's move matters because it signals conviction rather than caution. The bank's 420,000 estimate implies Tesla not only grew sequentially from the 358,023 vehicles it delivered in Q1 but also topped the 384,122 it delivered in the same quarter a year earlier. In a year when global EV incentives have been winding down, simply returning to year-over-year growth would be read as a clear win.

The consensus Tesla assembled carries a median estimate of 408,609 units, with analysts expecting about 392,625 Model 3 and Model Y deliveries plus roughly 12,978 from the Model S, Model X, Cybertruck, and Semi. Goldman's willingness to sit above that midpoint suggests the firm sees demand momentum — particularly for the refreshed Model Y — running stronger than the crowd.

Energy Adds to the Story

Deliveries are only half the setup. Analysts also expect Tesla to post a standout quarter in energy storage, with the same consensus calling for about 13.8 GWh of deployments, up sharply from 8.8 GWh in the first quarter. That surge, powered by the Shanghai Megafactory and new U.S. lines, would extend a run in which Tesla's energy division has become its fastest-growing business, echoing the record Megapack pace the company has been touting.

Taken together, a delivery beat and a record energy quarter would give bulls a two-part narrative: a stabilizing auto business paired with an accelerating storage franchise. That combination is exactly what investors bidding Tesla shares higher this week are positioning for.

The Setup Into July 2

Estimates from firms like Goldman are, by design, the yardstick Tesla will be measured against, and management has a history of clearing the bar it helps set. With sentiment improving and the stock rallying into the print, the delivery release has become a potential catalyst rather than a routine data drop. As Electrek noted when the consensus was published, the headline number is achievable — and Goldman is betting Tesla will do better than that.

If the Street's most bullish voices are right, Tesla will open the second half of 2026 with proof that its growth story is back on track.