SpaceX Eyes $100 Billion Revenue Run-Rate After Q2 Surge

HAWTHORNE, Calif. — SpaceX is turning its first months as a public company into a showcase of just how fast the business is compounding. The company posted a blockbuster second quarter, and Chief Financial Officer Bret Johnsen told investors that SpaceX is on pace to reach a $100 billion annualized revenue run-rate by December, based on the revenue it expects to book that month.

A Quarter of Records

Total revenue climbed to $7.8 billion in the second quarter, up about 92% from a year earlier and comfortably ahead of Wall Street estimates. The AI segment led the charge, jumping 247% to roughly $2.6 billion as SpaceX rented out compute capacity to outside customers and scaled its own model training. Connectivity, powered by Starlink, added $4.3 billion, up 66%, while adjusted earnings nearly tripled. Starlink itself crossed 12 million subscribers as revenue jumped, underscoring how the satellite business has become a dependable cash engine.

The numbers help explain a striking reversal in the stock. SpaceX — NASDAQ: SPCX — reclaimed its $135 IPO price for the first time since mid-July, closing near $133 this week after gaining more than 6% over five sessions. Investors who had braced for turbulence around the company's first post-IPO share unlock instead watched buyers step in.

Absorbing the Lockup

The setup had looked daunting on paper. Roughly 911.5 million insider-held shares became eligible to trade for the first time, more than doubling the public float, and short interest had climbed to about 34% ahead of earnings. Yet the flood of selling never materialized, and short sellers began covering as the rally built — a squeeze reminiscent of Tesla's early public years. Musk had warned bearish traders repeatedly that betting against the company over time was a losing proposition, and this week the market appeared to agree.

At around $133 per share, SpaceX carries a market capitalization near $1.76 trillion, a valuation that reflects expectations of rapid growth rather than current earnings. Analysts covering the stock expect revenue to roughly double again next year, with several forecasting a jump toward $95 billion in 2027 as the AI and connectivity segments scale in tandem. As one detailed 24/7 Wall St. analysis put it, the market may still be underpricing the high-margin software layer growing inside the company.

The Payback Question

The debate that remains centers on spending. Capital expenditures topped $18 billion in the quarter as SpaceX raced to build AI infrastructure, and management insists each new deployment can pay for itself within a year thanks to relentless demand for compute. With capacity scaling from about 0.4 gigawatts a year to 1.4 gigawatts by the end of the second quarter — and a target above 2 gigawatts by year-end — the company is betting that revenue will keep catching up to the build-out.

If Johnsen's $100 billion run-rate lands on schedule, SpaceX will close its first year as a public company having transformed launch dominance and Starlink into one of the most talked-about growth stories on the market. $TSLA shareholders are paying attention, with $SPCX increasingly seen as a bellwether for the broader Musk universe.