NEW YORK — SpaceX used its first earnings call as a public company to make an unmistakably bullish case: the business is bigger, and growing faster, than Wall Street appreciates — and Starlink is the reason.
"I think people are really underestimating Starlink here. This is a big deal," CEO Elon Musk told analysts. He said it was "not out of the question" that Starlink would eventually carry a majority of the world's internet traffic in markets where it operates, calling that achievable in "less than 10 years." SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) already saw its Starlink subscriber base double to 12 million over the past year, with connectivity revenue up 66%.
Pulling the $1 Trillion Target Forward
The numbers behind the optimism were strong. As detailed in the company's first quarterly report, revenue jumped 92% year over year to $7.81 billion, beating the roughly $6.9 billion consensus, while the net loss narrowed to 9 cents a share, far better than the 24-cent loss analysts expected. Management now expects a $100 billion annualized revenue run rate by the end of 2026, and Musk pulled the company's $1 trillion annual revenue target forward a year, to 2030, with what he called a "non-zero chance" of hitting it in 2029.
Growth is being driven on three fronts: Starlink connectivity, launch, and a fast-scaling AI compute business. Musk also teased a next-generation Starlink Mobile network he says could be "100 times better" than today's service, aimed squarely at the incumbent carriers' $600 billion market.
The Market Data
Here is where $SPCX stands: the stock traded near $115.98 midday Wednesday, easing from Tuesday's close of $125.33 after the capital-spending outlook and a looming share unlock gave traders pause. Shares sit within a 52-week range of roughly $104.83 to $225.64, off the highs reached shortly after June's record IPO. Investors can follow live quotes on Yahoo Finance, Google Finance, WSJ and Nasdaq. For context, Tesla ($TSLA) traded higher on the day, buoyed by the same ecosystem optimism.
A Near-Term Test, a Long-Term Story
The next few days bring a technical hurdle rather than a fundamental one. On Thursday, August 6, SpaceX's first lockup tranche frees roughly 911.5 million insider shares — the largest such release in Wall Street history — which could add near-term volatility as the tradable float more than doubles. Heavy AI capital spending, which Fortune and Benzinga both flagged, is another factor weighing on sentiment even as it fuels future growth.
For long-term believers, the setup looks familiar: a Musk company investing aggressively ahead of a large opportunity while short-term traders fixate on the spending. SpaceX ended the quarter with $100 billion in cash and a $47.5 billion backlog, giving it ample room to fund Starship, Starlink and its AI platform. If Starlink is indeed underestimated, as Musk argues, the path toward a trillion dollars in revenue — and the stock that follows it — may prove far more durable than this week's tape suggests.
This article does not constitute financial advice. Readers are advised to do their own research before investing in the stock market. Prices cited are point-in-time snapshots and may be stale — always confirm on a live financial source.
