AUSTIN, Texas — Tesla reports its second-quarter delivery numbers on Thursday, and Wall Street is positioning for a rebound led by an unexpectedly strong European market that has swung back in the automaker's favor.
Analysts surveyed by Visible Alpha peg Q2 deliveries at about 402,780 vehicles, a 4.9% increase from a year earlier and a 12.5% jump from the first quarter. Tesla's own investor-relations consensus sits a touch higher, near 406,000 units, and several banks think the company will clear that bar comfortably.
Europe Leads the Turnaround
The standout story of the quarter is Europe. Deutsche Bank projects Tesla's deliveries on the continent grew nearly 40% year over year, helped by rising fuel prices that have pushed more buyers toward electric vehicles. Analysts expect roughly 3% growth in China and softer results in North America, where the expiration of the $7,500 federal tax credit has pulled some demand forward.
The European rebound is notable because it reverses a difficult 2025, and it comes as Tesla rolls out lower-cost versions of the Model 3 and Model Y and pushes to widen the reach of its Full Self-Driving software across the region. An EU-level vote on broader FSD deployment is expected later this year.
Beyond the Headline Number
Tesla has spent the past year reframing the delivery report as just one piece of a much larger story. Energy storage deployments are expected to land near 13.8 GWh for the quarter, a sharp step up from Q1, while the company's robotaxi program, Cybercab ramp, and Optimus line increasingly anchor the bull case. Goldman Sachs recently lifted its Q2 forecast to about 420,000 vehicles, and Barclays has also flagged a likely beat.
There is reason for optimism on the raw number, too. Tesla exited the first quarter with more than 50,000 built-but-undelivered vehicles in transit, an inventory cushion the company was well positioned to clear into a stronger demand environment. Some analysts believe the final tally could land meaningfully above consensus.
The global backdrop remains fiercely competitive, with Chinese rival BYD posting large all-electric volumes of its own in the second quarter. But Tesla's investment thesis has increasingly shifted toward autonomy, energy, and AI, areas where its lead is widening even as the car market grows more crowded.
With the report due before Thursday's opening bell, investors will be watching not just the top-line figure but the regional momentum behind it. If Europe delivers the rebound analysts expect, Tesla's second half could open with fresh wind at its back.
