ARK Invest Sees Tesla-SpaceX Merger; Musk Denies China Split

AUSTIN, Texas — Elon Musk pushed back on fresh speculation this week that Tesla and SpaceX are heading toward a merger, but the analysts making the call are not backing down — and the debate is only sharpening now that SpaceX's newly public shares give the idea real financial plausibility.

What ARK Said

On ARK Invest's "Brainstorm" podcast, Cathie Wood's team — including chief futurist Brett Winton and research director Nick Grous — argued a Tesla and SpaceX combination remains likely, with an announcement possible before the end of the year even if the deal itself would take longer to close. Winton framed Tesla's Shanghai operations as only a "small-ish wrinkle" rather than a genuine obstacle, given that SpaceX's national-security work with the U.S. government sits awkwardly next to Tesla's manufacturing base in China. ARK has long been among Tesla's most bullish backers, a stance reflected across its coverage of the company's AI-driven roadmap and Starlink-connected hardware.

Musk's Response

Musk rejected the specific mechanics reporters have floated. "China is awesome. I strongly encourage people to visit," he wrote on X, repeating language he first used in late July after a Wall Street Journal report that Tesla executives had been told to prepare for a possible spinoff, sale or closure of the China business ahead of a tie-up. He called that report "absurdly fake news" and said a separation had "never even come up in a discussion ever." As Teslarati reported, Gigafactory Shanghai still ships more than half of Tesla's global deliveries and serves as its main export hub for Europe and Asia — which is exactly what makes the question complicated.

Why the Talk Keeps Coming Back

The merger conversation has gained momentum since SpaceX's IPO handed it public stock to use as acquisition currency — and the two companies are already deeply intertwined through the shared Grok assistant, SpaceX's ongoing Megapack purchases, and their joint Terafab chip project in Grimes County. Wedbush's Dan Ives has pegged the odds of a combination at 80% to 90% by early 2027, and ARK's year-end call adds another data point to that timeline.

Crucially, Musk's denial and the analysts' forecasts do not actually contradict each other. He is rejecting a China spinoff; ARK and Ives are describing convergence at the corporate level, not the internal restructuring the Journal described. Both can be true at once. For now Tesla's China business remains intact, and Musk shows no interest in walking that position back — but with two of the most valuable companies in his orbit growing steadily closer, investors have little reason to expect the merger chatter to fade any time soon.