AUSTIN, Texas — After nearly eight years of consistently bearish calls on Tesla, JPMorgan abruptly reversed course on Friday, June 5, upgrading the stock from underweight to neutral and lifting its price target from $145 to $475 — a 227.6% upward revision that represents one of the most dramatic analyst reversals in recent memory.
A Decade of Doubt, Suddenly Abandoned
For years, JPMorgan analyst Ryan Brinkman was a persistent Tesla skeptic, maintaining one of the lowest price targets on Wall Street even as the stock climbed into the trillions. When Rajat Gupta took over Tesla coverage from Brinkman in early May 2026, many investors suspected the bank's stance might shift. On June 5, it did — decisively.
Gupta's new thesis centers on a fundamental reframing of how to value Tesla. Rather than judging the company on near-term automotive earnings — a framework that consistently led to bearish conclusions — Gupta argues that investors have permanently anchored Tesla's worth to its future potential in autonomy and robotics. That shift in market psychology, he says, effectively decouples the stock's valuation from quarterly delivery numbers.
The Numbers Behind the Upgrade
JPMorgan projects Tesla's earnings per share could reach approximately $1.95 in 2026 and climb to roughly $7.50 by 2030, largely driven by the scaling of autonomous ride-hailing revenue and Optimus robot deployments. At $475, the new price target sits above the Wall Street consensus of approximately $405, making JPMorgan's revised call one of the more bullish among the major banks.
