SpaceX on Track for $60B Revenue Run Rate by Year-End

HAWTHORNE, Calif. — SpaceX may be on course for one of the most dramatic revenue ramp-ups in corporate history. Analyst Sawyer Merritt projected on June 6 that the company could exit 2026 with an annualized run rate approaching $60 billion — more than triple its $18.7 billion in 2025 revenue — fueled by a pair of massive AI compute agreements that have repositioned SpaceX from a launch-and-satellites company into a major cloud infrastructure player.

From $18.7 Billion to $60 Billion in One Year

For context, SpaceX's 2025 revenue of $18.7 billion worked out to roughly $1.56 billion per month. Two new contracts, stacked on top of Starlink's recurring subscriber revenue and a robust launch manifest, have fundamentally altered that math.

Anthropic is currently paying SpaceX $1.25 billion per month for AI compute capacity — a figure that by itself nearly matches SpaceX's entire prior monthly revenue. The arrangement is explicitly short-term, with a 90-day exit clause that either party can invoke. Merritt acknowledges this caveat prominently in his projection, noting it introduces real uncertainty into any year-end figure.

The more structurally durable piece is a multi-year cloud services agreement with Google. Under terms verified by multiple outlets, Google is expected to pay SpaceX approximately $920 million per month from October 2026 through June 2029. Unlike the Anthropic arrangement, this contract carries the kind of duration that meaningfully anchors a forward revenue model and provides a floor that would represent a historic step-change even without the Anthropic contribution.

The Revenue Stack in Context

Anthropic AI Compute brings in $1.25 billion per month under its short-term arrangement. Google Cloud Services will add $920 million per month under the multi-year deal beginning October 2026. Starlink, government contracts, and commercial launches contribute a further $1 billion or more per month on an ongoing basis. Combined, those three streams approach $3.2 billion monthly — roughly $38 billion annualized — before accounting for further Starlink subscriber growth, new government awards, and launch price increases through the second half of the year.

SpaceX Is Now a Cloud Company

The strategic implication extends well beyond revenue numbers. SpaceX has positioned itself as a direct competitor to AWS, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud in AI compute infrastructure — a market that Goldman Sachs projects will absorb $7.6 trillion in global capex from 2026 through 2031. That both Anthropic and Google are each paying close to a billion dollars per month for access to SpaceX's capacity suggests the company is offering something the hyperscalers cannot easily replicate in the near term, likely tied to the unique characteristics of its orbital and ground-based compute assets.

Whether SpaceX's infrastructure advantage proves durable at scale — or whether the hyperscalers eventually match it — is a key question for investors evaluating the company's long-term positioning.

The IPO Arrives at the Right Moment

SpaceX's public market debut, set for June 12 under the ticker SPCX at $135 per share and a $1.77 trillion valuation, arrives precisely when investors are beginning to recalibrate what kind of company SpaceX actually is. A rocket and satellite business commands one valuation multiple; a rocket, satellite, and AI compute infrastructure platform approaching $60 billion in annualized revenue commands another entirely.

The key variable investors should track in the second half of 2026 is the Anthropic contract. If it renews — or is replaced by a comparable arrangement with another AI lab — the $60 billion projection strengthens considerably. The Google deal gives SpaceX a long, stable runway regardless. But the difference between a $40 billion and a $60 billion run rate likely comes down to how that short-term compute relationship evolves over the next 90 days.